Former Vice President Joe Biden is the current leader for the Democratic nomination in New Jersey, with a three percent lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to Emerson College Poll.
The poll, conducted between Jan. 16-19, shows the former Delaware senator at 28% of the vote, trailed by Sanders at 25%, Senator Elizabeth Warren at 15% and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 9%. Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang were tied for 5th at 6% each.
Bloomberg’s 9% is the highest for the late entering candidate in any state poll this year, according to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling.
“If his late start strategy is going to work, he will need to perform well in delegate-rich states such as New Jersey at the end of the nomination season,” Kimball stated.
On the Republican side, President Donald Trump dominates his Republican rivals with 93% of the vote.
Support Not Solid
But while the numbers are favorable at this point for Biden, the election is still volatile. About 52% of Democratic primary voters indicate they could change their mind and vote for another candidate by June, while 48% are locked in for their choice.
Support for each candidate follows national trends when broken down by demographics.
In New Jersey, Biden continues to be popular with older voters, as 40% of those over 50 supporting him. Biden continues to struggle with younger voters, taking only 9% of the vote of those between 18-29 years old, while leading overall with female voters at 29%
In contrast, Sanders captures the youth vote with 36% support of those under 50, while just having 7% support of those over 65. The Vermont senator is backed by 22% of female voters.
Warren is the third most popular candidate in all four age groups with a range of 12% to 22% support and 19% of women supporting the Massachusetts senator.
Males break for Sanders at 28%, followed by Biden at 27% and Warren at 11%.
Minority Support Mixed
Among African American voters, Biden has 47% of the vote, easily ahead of Warren’s 17% and Sanders’ 14%. In the Hispanic demographic, Sanders tops the poll at 31%, trailed by Warren at 28%, and Biden at 16%.
Sanders currently captures 27% of the white votes in the state, with Biden at 23%, and Warren at 13%.
Dems Expect Biden to be Nominee
Despite the poll showing no clear favorite at this point, 55% of voters expect Biden to be the nominee. Sanders is the next expected choice at 22%, and Warren is at 10%.
Of those voting for Biden, 84% expect him to be the nominee, with only 4% of Biden’s voters think Sanders will be the nominee. For Sanders supporters, 57% expect their choice to be the nominee. Warren (42%) and Sanders (35%) backers expect Biden will top the Democrtic ticket.
The support for Biden follows a similar pattern of a poll released the week before about the New Hampshire primary, said Emerson’s Kimball.
“Biden supporters [are] more confident in their candidate than Sanders supporters, and as the primaries begin we will see whether the Biden supporters are overconfident or if the Sanders supporters have something to worry about,” he stated. Emerson College