Emerson Poll Finds Joe Biden with a 17 Point Lead in New Jersey

A new poll shows New Jersey is on track to remain blue this year. 

An Emerson College Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden expanding his lead in the Garden State, while Sen. Cory Booker appears ready to cruise to an easy re-election in November.

The Emerson poll of New Jersey conducted of likely voters found Biden with 55% of the vote to President Donald Trump at 38%. Among the 7% of undecided voters, 44% were leaning towards Biden, 33% leaning towards Trump, and 23% said they were leaning towards someone else. 

In the Senate race, Booker leads Republican challenger Rik Mehta 52% to 28%, 16% were undecided while 5% plan to vote for someone else. 

Trump Underwater

“Biden is performing a few points better than (Hillary) Clinton did in 2016 which is a similar trend we have seen in other states around the country,” said Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, which conducted the survey between Sept. 4-7.  

President Trump’s popularity in New Jersey is about 10 points below his national numbers with the majority of New Jersey voters (56%) disapproving of the job Trump is doing as President, whereas 38% approve, and 7% were neutral. 

Demographically, Biden leads with females (56% to 37%) males (54% to 38%) and independent voters (50% to 35%). The only category Trump leads Biden is with voters with a high school degree or lower at 48% of the vote to 44%.

Expanding Lead

The Emerson Poll follows the results of a July Monmouth University Poll which found Biden with a 12 point lead. Additionally, Biden held a significant advantage among the one in five who did not have a favorable opinion of either candidate.

Biden had the support of 53% of registered voters in July, compared to the 41% aligned for Trump. In June, Monmouth reported a 52% to 41% split.

The trend line continues gravitating towards Biden, who led 50% to 41% in May, 48% to 44% in April, and 48% to 45% in March. While half of the nation’s electorate ruled out voting for Donald Trump, four in ten say the same thing about Joe Biden.

Mail-in Ballots

Emerson’s poll found Half of New Jersey voters plan to vote by mail in November, with 35% planning to vote in-person on election day, and 15% plan to vote in-person early.

The way voters will cast their ballot show significant differences along party lines. Of those planning to vote for President Trump, 53% plan to vote in-person on election day and 25% intend to vote early in-person.

Of those supporting Biden, 66% intend to vote by mail, 24% in-person on election day and 11% early in-person. Undecided voters seem to be in agreement on their voting plan, with 78% reporting they intend to vote by mail. 

Party Lines

Voters expressed concerns in their confidence they have in the election results regardless of who wins in November. Forty-five percent declared they were somewhat confident in election results, 25% were somewhat unconfident, 24% were very confident, and 6% said they have no confidence at all. 

Among party lines, Democratic voters were most likely to report feeling somewhat confident in the results at 54%. Republicans were narrowly behind with 41% feeling somewhat confident, and 37% of Independents. Independent voters reported the highest feelings of somewhat uncertainty, with 33%. 

GOP voters lead amongst those who reported they will have no confidence in the election results, with 11% compared to 8% of Independents and 2% of Democrats. 

2 comments

  1. Donald Trump believes we are his servants. He is a good actor. He claims to be with police yet he knew he encouraged private citizens (armed militia) to show up to Democratic statehouses to protest the lockdown. The police in each of the cities jobs to protect the governors and others.
    He has no concern for any hurt or harm he causes.

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