The latest statewide poll continues to show Joe Biden with a clear path to win the Presidential vote in New Jersey by a decisive margin, motivated in large part by animus towards President Donald Trump.
The survey by the Fairleigh Dickinson Poll of New Jersey released Oct. 9 shows the Democratic presidential nominee is preferred over the President by double digits, up 15 percentage points (53% to 38%) with likely voters, with similar numbers among registered voters (52% to 35%).
“New Jersey remains a very dependable blue state and what is clear from this survey is that in 2020 it’s moved even further into that dark blue zone, with Trump losing ground among voters since the last election,” said Krista Jenkins, the FDU poll director and professor of politics and government at Fairleigh Dickinson University in a press statement.
Better than Hillary
In fact, Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), are doing better among women and younger voters relative to the Democratic ticket in 2016. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton attracted the support of 54% of female likely voters, while the Biden/Harris ticket is favored by 62% of women who intend to vote, more than doubling the 30% Trump is attracting. In 2016, female voters favored Clinton over Trump by 54% to 35% margin.
The 18-34 age cohort is showing a greater preference for the current Democratic ticket compared to 2016 as well, with 61% planning to vote for the Biden/Harris ticket. Less than half favored Clinton four years ago.
Overall, support for Biden exceeds that for Clinton in the last presidential election. In early October of 2016, Clinton enjoyed an eleven point edge over Trump (51% to 40%), with the finally tally of 56% to 41% for the former Secretary of State.
Men, on the other hand, have remained supportive of President Trump, basically split down the middle, with 46% supporting Trump and 44% in favor of Biden.
Trump voters are motivated by their enthusiasm for their candidate rather than their opposition to the former vice president, but the opposite is not true for Biden voters. Eighty-one percent of Trump voters say their vote is driven more by support for him than opposition to Biden (15%). Conversely, nearly half of Biden voters (47%) are casting votes for him as a vote against Trump.
“Perhaps a Republican ticket would be faring better even in New Jersey if the nominee didn’t engender so much animus,” said Jenkins. “It’s not that New Jersey Democrats love their candidate. With only half of all likely voters who support Biden being motivated by genuine affection for their candidate, to many Biden is a proxy for an ‘Anything But Trump’ candidate.”