Following up with a best model scenario in regards to the number of coronavirus cases in New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy said he was more worried about the length then the overall numbers of residents who test positive.
“The most troubling aspect of the high-case scenario isn’t necessarily the peak in terms of the numbers, although those numbers are concerning, but the slow decline on the other side,” said Murphy at a press briefing on April 7.
In a chart, the best case scenario has the state reaching highs on April 18 of new coronavirus cases at 4,344, hospitalizations at 2,129, patients in intensive care at 458 and ventilators in use at 255.
Showcasing the best case scenario comes a week after state officials presented their projections into the Summer. For the moderate forecast, highs are reached on the same April date of new coronavirus cases at 5,445, hospitalizations at 2,669, patients in intensive care at 574 and ventilators in use at 319.
In the worst case model, new coronavirus cases peak at 8,162 and hospitalizations at 3,633 on May 18, while patients in intensive care reach 776 on May 21 and ventilators in use top off at 421 May 12.
Murphy noted the models do not show a whole lot of difference in terms of timing, especially between the best and moderate cases, but a meaningful difference in the high case.
“In the high-case scenario… you stall out at a higher range, and in fact, while the high points are reached in middish-May, there’s a second uptick in mid-June, and then there’s a much slower decline throughout the summer,” he explained. “This is not only high numbers, but it’s a longer duration event.”
The governor was not worried about the threat of hospitals being overrun such as the case as last Spring, due to a combination of being better prepared as well as the COVID-19 vaccine program that has full vaccinated approximately 2 million residents so far.
“Frankly I worry more about…our ability as a society to stay the course throughout that longer period,” he said. “It’s why we are continuing to enforce things like our statewide mask mandate, especially for indoor activities where we know the transmission is more likely and also in the face of the more transmissible variants that we know are among us.”
“It is also a reason why we moved up our vaccine eligibility time frame aggressively so we can now have more people into the ranks of thee fully vaccinated in a shorter amount of time,” he added.
Murphy believes the state is looking at a reality the numbers will end up somewhere between best and moderate, “but we all have to redouble our efforts to keep the high-case model from becoming a reality, “ including face masks and social distancing.
Repeating what White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain told Murphy at the beginning of the pandemic, “Don’t ever forget that models are models, but human behavior can bend these trajectories good or bad. We need this one more push to get this into the best place we can.”
The number of COVID-19 vaccines administered in New Jersey totaled 5141,870 as of April 9. Of those who have received the vaccine, 3,275,611 residents have received their first dose with 2,030,971 receiving their second dose or the one jab Johnson & Johnson dose; 51% have been administered the Pfizer vaccine, 45% the Moderna vaccine and 3% the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Demographically, 56% of those vaccinated are women and 44% men. As for ethnicity, 58% are White, 10% other, 9% unknown, 9% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 5% Black. In regards to age of those having received the vaccine, 38% are 65 years old or olders, 29% are between the ages of 50-64, 25% are between the ages of 40-49, and 9% are between the ages of 18-29.
In North Jersey, Bergen County has delivered 577,382 doses, Essex 394,076 doses, Morris 361,635 doses, Hudson 296,602 doses, Passaic 234,378 doses, Sussex 80,801 doses, and Warren 52,553 doses.
As of April 9, the cumulative number of confirmed coronavirus cases in New Jersey was 831,260 with 3,523 total new PCR cases reported. There were 952 probable cases, bringing the cumulative total of antigen tests to 115,244. The total number of individual cases for the state is 946,504. Gov. Murphy previously noted there is some unknown overlap due to health officials urging those taking a rapid test to get a PCR test.
As for those that have passed, the state reported 43 new deaths, bringing that total to 22,253 The state listed probable deaths at 2,573, bringing the overall total to 24,826. State officials noted 23 deaths occurred in the last 24 hours of reporting that have not yet been lab confirmed.
For North Jersey counties on April 9, Bergen had a total of 350 new confirmed cases and 93 probable cases, Essex 365 new cases and 72 probable cases, Hudson 307 new cases and 70 probable cases, Morris 153 new cases and 55 probable cases, Passaic 247 new cases and 51 probable cases, Sussex 45 new cases and 21 probable cases, and Warren 41 cases and three new probable cases.
There are a total of 827 coronavirus variants being reported in the Garden State. State officials documented 806 cases of the U.K. variant, 10 cases of the California variants, nine cases of the Brazilian P1 variant, and two cases of the South African variant.
Of the total confirmed deaths in North Jersey, Essex County has the most with 2,528, followed by Bergen at 2,464, Hudson with 1,948, Passaic at 1,622, Morris at 946, Sussex at 221 and Warren County at 204.
In regards to probable deaths reported April 7, Bergen has 294, Essex has 291, Morris has 241, Hudson has 203, Passaic has 194, Sussex has 66 and Warren has 25.
As for the rate of transmission, it decreased to 1.01 from 1.02 the day before. The daily rate of infections from those tested as of April 4, was 14.1%; by region, the rate was 15.6% in the North, 14.0% in the Central region and 10.8% in the South.
Officials reported 2,378 patients were hospitalized; by region, there were 1,210 in the North, 715 in the Central and 433 in the South. Of those hospitalized, 460 are in intensive care units and 266 on ventilators. A total of 324 patients were discharged, while 344 were admitted.
Officials have continually cited transmission rate, hospilizations, intensive care units, ventilators and positivity rate as health data they rely on to track how the coronavirus is being contained in New Jersey, guiding them in determining when restrictions have to be tightened or lifted.
Bergen Tops County Count
Bergen has the most confirmed cumulative cases in the state with 83,471, followed by Essex at 80,639, Middlesex at 80,250, Hudson at 74,732, Monmouth at 63,384, Ocean at 62,049, Passaic at 60,380, Union at 56,644, Camden at 44,731, Morris at 39,621, Burlington at 35,624, Mercer at 29,752, Gloucester at 24,244, Atlantic at 23,138, Somerset at 22,586, Cumberland at 13,483, Sussex at 10,508, Hunterdon at 8,069, Warren at 7,970, Salem at 4,915, and Cape May at 4,265.
In regards to probable cases, Bergen had the most at 11,995, followed by Union at 9,965, Ocean at 9,215, Essex at 8,462, Hudson at 8,208, Monmouth at 7,404, Morris at 7,265, Middlesex at 6,712, Passaic at 6,563, Atlantic at 6,195, Burlington at 5,836, Camden at 5,809, Somerset at 5,284, Cape May at 4,250, Gloucester at 3,617, Cumberland at 2,190, Mercer at 2,093, Sussex at 1,915, Warren at 866, Hunterdon at 786 and Salem 502.
Another 805 cases are still under investigation to determine where the person resides.
In regards to cases related to in-school transmissions, a total of 240 outbreaks involving 1,070 cases have been reported, with 35 new outbreaks accounting for 123 cases in the weekly update on April 6.
For North Jersey, Bergen County has 51 confirmed outbreaks with 196 cases, Passaic County has 15 confirmed outbreaks with 50 cases, Warren has 14 confirmed outbreaks with 34 cases, Sussex has 11 confirmed outbreaks with 34 cases, Morris County has five confirmed outbreaks with 34 cases, Hudson County has four confirmed outbreaks with 21 cases, and Essex County with one confirmed outbreak with 92 cases.
Long-term Care Facilities
Health officials noted 229 long-term care facilities are currently reporting at least one case of COVID-19, accounting for a total of 7,462 of the cases, broken down between 3,345 residents and 4,117 staff.
Cumulatively, 1,352 long-term care facilities reported a case infecting 32,583 residents and 21,673 staff, for a total of 54,256 cases.
The state’s official death total will now be reported as those that are lab confirmed, sits at 7,999 on April 9. The facilities are reporting to the state 7,856 residents deaths and 143 staff deaths.