Gov. Phil Murphy is returning from vacation to good political news—the latest poll from Monmouth University shows him still maintaining a sizable lead in his bid to be a second term governor with nearly half of respondents having a favorable view of him.
Murphy holds a double-digit lead over GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli, with 52% of registered voters currently supporting Murphy compared with 36% backing his opponent.
A dive inside the numbers show Murphy being boosted by Independent voters, the state’s growing minority communities and sizable leads in North and Central Jersey.
North, Central Jersey for Murphy
“These results illustrate the challenge any Republican running in New Jersey would face this year,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in a press statement releasing the poll Aug. 18. “One place to start is Central Jersey.”
Regionally, Murphy holds substantial advantages in the Northern (60% to 29%) and Central (52% to 38%) parts of the state. Ciattarelli has a lead of five percentage points, 45%-40%, in South Jersey.
“Chris Christie won (the Central) region by 15 points when he narrowly ousted a Democratic incumbent in 2009, but it appears to be Murphy territory this time around,” said Murray. “The key to GOP victory in the past has been winning over upper-income moderate Republicans in Somerset County and working-class swing voters in Middlesex.”
Trump Effect?
But the pollster noted these voters over the last six years have moved away from Republican politicians since Donald Trump emerged as the leader of the party and the national party increasingly holding more conservative views.
“Both these groups have swung decidedly toward the Democratic party during the Trump era, and it doesn’t look like they are about to swing back any time soon—even for someone like Ciattarelli, who is one of their own,” opined Murray.
And while both candidates claim formidable leads among voters who identify with their respective parties, Murphy holds a 44% to 38% edge among voters who do not see themselves as aligned with either party.
Demographic Breakdown
Besidens regionally, Murphy has a significant advantage among voters of color—85% to 5% among Black voters and 69% to 19% among Latinos, Asians, and multiracial voters.
Ciattarelli holds a 49% to 40% lead among White voters, but there is a split based on education. His lead with this group is largely due to White voters without a bachelor’s degree (55%-34%), but White college graduates prefer Murphy by seven percentage points (48%-41%) for Ciattarelli.
Monmouth found three models they polled did not alter the proposed outcomes of the race, just the margin of victory for Murphy. The incumbent governor holds similar leads among voters who have cast ballots in every general election since 2016 (53%-38%) and those who voted in only two or three elections during that time (51% to 35%).
The Race Remains the Same
When the potential electorate is limited only to voters who cast ballots in the 2017 gubernatorial election, Murphy increases to a margin of 17 percentage points, 54%-37%.
The only group Ciattarelli makes a real dent with are voters who describe themselves as being more enthusiastic about this year’s race versus past elections for governor. The challenger defeats Murphy by a 51% to 44% margin, but the cohort make up only 27% of all voters.
“There is not a lot here to suggest that a focus on turning out different types of voters will lead to a significant shift in the current state of the race.,” said Murray. “It will require something more fundamental in the issues driving the race to do that.”
The poll aligns with previous polls of the race. Days after the June 8 primary, an FDU Poll found Murphy leading his GOP challenger by 48% to 32% margin with a Rutgers-Eagleton poll during the same time showed 52% of registered voters say they would vote for Murphy in his race with Ciattarelli in a who received support of 26% respondents. And a May Monmouth poll found 48% say they would vote to reelect Murphy compared with 43% wanting to vote for another candidate.
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Ciattarelli may like to think that he is a moderate Republican, but he has aggressively strapped himself to Trump and trumpism since the primary. His would-be lieutenant governor is even more extreme. His positions go against those of the majority of our state, and just because he was born here doesn’t make his extreme positions any more palatable. In short, “You don’t know, Jack.”
NJ has lost a lot of republican voters because they moved out of this state because of the liberal positions. I know many. And they are not wealthy. They never looked back. Do you think everyone thinks of Trump the way you do? Is every republican candidate automatically tied to Trump? Ciattarelli want’s to lower taxes on the middle class not raise them. He has a plan, Murphy doesn’t.
I bet that once murphy has won he will declare that covid isnt so bad and repeal the useless mask mandates and vaccine mandates. All he cares about is getting reelected
Masks have never been shown to make any difference and the vaccines only protect the person reveiving them . They do not prevent transmission
So to mandate them is ignorant, foolish and vindictive. Which pretty much sums up Murphy
All you need to know about Murphy is his statement – we didn’t even think about the constitution for coronavirus measures. That’s one of the scariest statements made by any elected official. He needs to go. The entire polling industry should be ignored and Monmouth is no exception.
Murphy will probably sooner or later do some kind of vaxx mandates. He’s a follower does what other democrat dictators do. It’s too bad that it will be too late when so many black people who are opposed to covid vaxx have helped re-elect Murphy and he doesn’t care about freedom of choice when it comes to covid vaxx. I’m just a white dumb(non college ed. as journalists like to imply!) woman and at this point, I would never vote for a democrat they don’t care about my rights. Look at Loretta Weinberg trying to get rid of religious exemptions. Another dictator.
You would never know it from this poll or the reporting, but there are more than two choices for governor, including Gregg Mele, the Libertarian Party candidate. If you believe in personal liberty, civil liberty, economic liberty and limited government, please consider voting for him.