One-Third of Americans Think Voter Fraud Led to Biden 2020 Win: Monmouth

One-third of Americans continue to believe that President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory was the result of voter fraud, according to findings of a new poll from Monmouth University.

The Jersey Shore polling outfit additionally found that 17% of the public thinks there is still a path to reverse the electoral vote count and replace Biden with former President Donald Trump before the next presidential election with 6% of respondents saying there’s definitely a path to reinstate Trump before the 2024 election and 11% saying there’s probably a path.

“The persistence of the ‘Big Lie’ continues to be a warning sign,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a report describing poll findings.

“It is being fed and nurtured by messages that tout the possibility of overturning the 2020 result even though no such legal mechanism exists,” Murray added. “While the number who hold this view might not sound like a lot right now, it’s important to remember that it doesn’t take an outright majority to destabilize institutions.”

Consistent Finding

The poll finding that 32% believe Biden’s 2020 win was the result of voter fraud has remained consistent each time Monmouth University’s Polling Institute has asked the question since November 2020 with 32% of respondents saying Biden’s win was the result of voter fraud.

The belief that there’s a path to overturn the 2020 election is held by 30% of Republicans, 15% of independents, and 5% of Democrats, according to the Monmouth U poll. Taken together, about 1 in 8 Americans, or 12%, believe that President Biden stole the election and that there is still a chance to overturn the 2020 result.

Capitol Connection

The findings come a year after Trump supporters violently stormed the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021, in an effort to stop the U.S. Congress from certifying Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump. According to the federal Department of Justice, the attack caused an estimated $1.5 million in damage to the U.S. Capitol.

DOJ said more than 725 defendants connected to the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack have been arrested in nearly all 50 states and the District of Columbia as of the end of 2021, “including over 75 individuals who have been charged with using a deadly or dangerous weapon or causing serious bodily injury to an officer.”

The poll results come amid Republican infighting over Jan. 6, 2021. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Feb. 8 criticized the Republican National Committee (RNC) for censuring GOP Reps. Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), the only two Republican participants in a select congressional committee charged with investigating what happened that day.

McConnell Pushback

McConnell told reporters it was “not the job” of the RNC to punish Republicans for taking a position at odds with the majority. He also rejected the RNC’s characterization of the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack as “legitimate political discourse.”

“We saw it happen. It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election, from one administration to the next,” McConnell said.

Better or Worse off?

Monmouth poll respondents were nearly evenly divided over the hypothetical question: Would the country be better or worse off if Trump had defeated Biden in 2020?

Forty-two percent said the country would be better off and 40 % said the country would be worse off if Trump had won. An additional 16% said things would be “about the same” if the election win had gone to Trump.

Additionally, the poll found that:

• 49% of respondents see voter disenfranchisement as a major problem (among Democrats the percentage shifts upward to 59% compared with 42% of Republicans).
• 80% of the overall public supports requiring voters to show a photo ID in order to vote (nearly all Republican respondents supported voter ID requirements and 6 in 10 Democrats supported voter ID requirements).
• 63% support the setting of national guidelines to allow vote by mail and in-person early voting in federal elections in each state with a large split by political party. Standardizing vote by mail and early voting access is supported by 9 in 10 Democrats and 4 in 10 Republicans.
• 73% support establishing national guidelines for each state to follow when counting votes in federal elections. National vote-counting guidelines are supported by 8 in 10 Democrats and 2 in 3 Republicans.

The poll was conducted by phone from Jan. 20 to Jan. 24, with 794 adults in the United States and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.