The New Jersey Department of Health released models last week showing while new COVID-19 cases are expected to continue to rise, hospitals in the state are not expected to be stressed this Summer.
The department released two models titled Moderate Plus and High based on a number of factors. Both models see the number of patients in intensive care and on ventilators staying below 200 through mid-August. For hospitalizations, the range is approximately between 700 and 1,800 depending on the model and time. New COVID-19 cases high points would be between just under 3,500 in early June in the Moderate model and nearly reaching 8,000 in mid-July for the High model.
Assumptions for the moderate model include continuation on in-school learning, 85% of the adult population primary vaccinated, the 12-17 year old vaccination rate “stalls” at 65%, 50% of those eligible for the booster receive it by the end of June and the completion of primary vaccination series plus disease is protective of hospitalizations with limited waning immunity to initial booster.
This Moderate model forecasts that a post Memorial Day surge will result in a single day high of 3,400 new COVID-19 cases as of June 9. Daily cases would then decline with another surge hitting a high of 3,300 new cases July 25. The modeling end on August 11 with 3,000 new daily cases.
But hospilizations would remain relatively unchanged in the Moderate model, never surpassing 1,000. The highest number of patients in the hospital appears to peak June 9 with just under 800 patients in the state’s 71 hospitals. After a steady decline through early July, a second surge will peak at around 750 July 25.
Intensive care and ventilator cases would remain under 100 for the entirety of the time period. Slight upticks are observed in early June and late July.
As for the High model, assumptions remain the same for the continuation of in-school learning, 85% of the adult population are primarily vaccinated, and the 12-17 year old vaccination rate “stalls” at 65%. Where the models differ is 40% of those eligible for the booster receive by the end of June and waning immunity to initial booster dose in selected individuals.
The High model projects that daily cases will continue to rise and reach a surge of 7,050 on June 18. After a decline for about a month, a rapid increase will reach its crescendo of approximately 7,750 cases July 17 before beginning a steady decline again.
Hospilizations would reach a June 18 high of 1,602, have a steady decline before surging to a high a month later above 1,900. By Aug. 11, approximately 1,000 patients would be hospitalized in New Jersey.
Intensive care and ventilator cases would remain under 200 for the entirety of the time period, again seeing slight upticks observed in mid June and mid July.
For context, the past Winter surge reached its high Jan. 11 with 21,482 new COVID-19 cases in one day. There were 6,089 hospilizations of which 919 patients were in intensive care and 550 on ventilators in the state’s 71 hospitals.
New Jersey on May 23 reported four new COVID-19 deaths and 2,403 new confirmed cases as 10 counties remain at “high” risk for coronavirus transmission. There were 832 patients with confirmed or suspected coronavirus cases at the state’s 70 of 71 hospitals. Of those hospitalized, 119 were in intensive care and 38 were on ventilators. New Jersey’s statewide transmission rate was 1.25 with the positivity rate at 12.3% for tests conducted on May 18.
Gov. Phil Murphy last week stated changes in the state’s pandemic protocol were not being considered—such as in Philadelphia where a school mask mandate was reinstated starting this week—even as 10 counties counties remain at “high” risk for coronavirus transmission according to the CDC.
New daily PCR cases: 2,402; Probable Cases: 527
Total Cases: 2,359,532 (2,027,112 PCR cases, 332,420 probable cases)
New Confirmed Deaths: 4 (4 probable death, 33,619 total deaths)
Rate of Transmission: 1.25, down from 1.29 on Friday
Percent Positivity: 12.3% as of May 18; by region, the rate was 11.4% in the North, 13.7% in the Central region and 12.6% in the South
Bergen County: 283 New Cases, 53 Probable Cases, 3,141 deaths, 325 probable deaths
Essex County: 207 New Cases, 43 Probable Cases, 3,302 deaths, 314 probable deaths
Hudson County: 118 New Cases, 42 Probable Cases, 2,503 total deaths, 221 probable deaths
Morris County: 142 New Cases, 39 Probable Cases, 1,249 deaths, 305 probable deaths
Passaic County: 123 New Cases, 26 Probable Cases, 2,136 deaths, 204 probable deaths
Sussex County: 41 New Cases, 1 Probable Case, 387 deaths, 93 probable deaths
Warren County: 32 New Cases, 0 Probable Case, 316 deaths, 27 probable deaths
Hospitalizations: 832 (326 North, 279 Central and 227 South)
Patients in intensive care units: 119
Patients on ventilators: 38
Patients discharged: 118
The state dashboard showed 70 of 71 hospitals in the state reporting
Long-term Care Facilities
Facilities currently reporting one case: 327 (2,720 overall)
Current number of residents: 3,592 (50,053 overall)
Current number of staffers: 3,259 (40,025 overall)
Number of Deaths: 9,100 overall (8,607 reported by facilities, 139 staff deaths)
Total number of COVID-19 vaccines administered in New Jersey: 14,495,915 (13,990,642 in-state, plus an additional 505,273 administered out-of-state)
Fully Vaccinated: 6,917,796 (6,713,978 in state and another 203,818 out of state). By county, 697,102 in Bergen County, 561,411 in Essex, 508,092 in Hudson, 404,152 in Morris, 372,436 in Passaic, 106,939 in Sussex, and 91,253 in Warren.
Booster Shots: 3,792,750 (2,086,331 Pfizer, 1,634,487 Moderna and 71,932 Johnson & Johnson)