Donald Trump, indicted for the fourth time this year last night, remains the top choice for Republicans in the latest national poll from a New Jersey polling outfit.
Released Aug. 10, the Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) national survey finds Trump continuing to lap the field with a second tier of candidates consisting of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
But while the former President’s legal issues are leading GOP voters to be more open to other candidates—a segment that has Christie leading a divided field.
“Trump is still well in the lead,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “But that doesn’t mean that his legal problems aren’t hurting him.”
Trump at 60%
In the poll conducted at the same time he was indicted for three conspiracy charges related to attempting to maintain power after losing the 2020 Presidential Election, Trump has the support of 58% of the likely Republican primary electorate, including those who are leaning towards one candidate or another. DeSantis has the support of 15%, with no other candidate getting out of the single digits.
Christie and Pence, the two candidates who have most notably spoken out against Trump, are each polling at 5%. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) round out the next tier of candidates, all with measurable support at 3% or less. No other candidate reached one percent support in the poll.
Brushing Off Legal Woes
“Right now, visibility is the name of the game in the Republican primary. Candidates can’t break out unless they can get media coverage, and Trump is sucking all of the air out of the room,” said Cassino. “Criticisms of Trump have gotten Christie and Pence a lifeline, but so far, it’s not enough.”
The effect of Trump’s legal troubles in New York, Florida and Washington, D.C. were tested in the poll. Half of respondents were asked about the indictments before being asked if they would consider supporting someone other than their initial choice; half were asked about the indictments only afterwards.
The survey, which sampled likely voters in a Republican primary contest rather than likely Republican voters more generally, found 48% of Trump supporters say that they would consider supporting someone else for the nomination. But when Trump supporters are reminded about the indictments, they become 11 points more likely to say that they’re open to supporting someone else (54%).
Only Trump vs. Never Trump
FDU pollsters found that reminding voters about the indictments reduces the size of the “Only Trump” wing of the party from 32% to 25%. In contrast, the “Never Trump” wing of the party, currently supporting a different candidate, and saying that they will not consider supporting Trump, consists of 21%.
“All of these legal problems are having an effect,” opined Cassino. “But even if Trump lost all of his supporters who say they’re open to someone else, he’d still be in the lead.”
While only 17% of primary voters believe the indictments against Trump are legitimate, the race looks very different for this cohort. In that group, Christie leads the pack with 25% support, followed by DeSantis and Pence close behind (19% and 16%, respectively). Trump retains the support of 10% of those who say that the indictments against him are justified.
Christie’s Support
“Christie is doing a great job of reaching Republicans who think that Trump did crimes,” said Cassino. “The problem is that there just aren’t enough yet of them to win a Republican primary.”
As for demographics of their supporters, both Trump and DeSantis are more popular among men than women with the Republican primary electorate, and DeSantis does better with relatively younger GOP primary voters and those who attend religious services more frequently (54% of likely Republican primary voters say that they go to church weekly, or more than once a week). But even among those voters who go to church most frequently, Trump has a substantial 53 to 18% lead over DeSantis.
Among Republican primary voters with the highest levels of knowledge—who could name the Speaker of the House, Secretary of State and Prime Minister of the UK—23% were able to correctly name all three; about 15% couldn’t name any.
High Knowledge Voters
Among Republican primary voters with the highest levels of knowledge, the field of candidates looks rather different. Trump is still in the lead with them, with 45% support, with DeSantis at 18%. Christie has 12% support among these voters, with Haley and Ramaswamy coming in at 6% each.
Pence is most popular among voters who pay the least attention to politics. Pollsters noted voters with higher levels of knowledge were more likely to think that Trump’s indictments are legitimate.
“There are fissures among Republican primary voters,” said Cassino. “The voters who are paying close attention are moving away from Trump, but there just aren’t enough of them to push this election.”
