As the eight candidates get set to face off at the first GOP debate in Milwaukee tonight, a recent FDU poll showed that those tubing in may offer a path to defeating Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.
A survey of Republican likely primary voters released by the New Jersey university on Aug. 15, those who pay the most attention to the news are more likely to view the indictments as legitimate and are less likely to support Trump, but are outweighed by those paying little attention to current events.
The survey, fielded before the Georgia indictments, shows that reminding Republicans of the indictments makes Trump supporters more likely to say that they’re open to supporting other candidates.
Indictments Don’t Matter
The issue for those GOP candidates is that only 17% of likely voters in their state’s Republican primary say that the indictments against Trump are legitimate, with 75% saying that they are not, and 8 % not sure. But FDU pollsters noted these figures vary widely depending on how much people know about current events and politics.
The poll measured political knowledge by asking respondents to identify who currently holds various offices (Speaker of the House, Secretary of State and Prime Minister of the UK). About a quarter (23%) were able to correctly name all three; about 15% couldn’t name any.
Voter Knowledge Key
Among Republicans at the lowest levels of knowledge (unable to answer any of the knowledge questions), only 15% say that the indictments are legitimate, and Trump leads his nearest competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), by 44 points (55 to 11).
But GOP voters with the highest levels of knowledge (all three questions answered correctly) are about twice as likely to say that the indictments are legitimate (28%), and while Trump still has a lead, it’s much smaller: just 27 points over DeSantis (45 to 18).
“All the bad news in the world doesn’t matter if voters aren’t paying attention to the news,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “The indictments hurt Trump among knowledgeable Republicans, but there aren’t enough of them to cost Trump the primary, at least not yet.”
Poll Experiment
To examine the effect of the spate of indictments on support for Trump, an experiment was embedded in the poll. Half of respondents were asked about the indictments before being asked if they would consider supporting someone other than their initial choice; half were asked about the indictments only afterwards.
All told, 48% of Trump supporters say that they would consider supporting someone else for the nomination. But when Trump supporters are reminded about the indictments, they become 11 points more likely to say that they’re open to supporting someone else (an increase to 54% from 43%).
In effect, reminding voters about the indictments reduces the size of the “only Trump” wing of the party to 25% from 32%. In contrast, the “never Trump” wing of the party, currently supporting a different candidate, and saying that they will not consider supporting Trump, consists of 21%.
Fifth Avenue Followers
“All of these legal problems are having an effect,” said Cassino. “But even if Trump lost all of his supporters who say they’re open to someone else, he’d still be in the lead.”
Surprisingly, even among those Republicans who think that the indictments against Trump are legitimate, the former President retains some support. Nine percent of Republicans who say that the indictments against Trump are legitimate say that they’ll vote for him anyway.
“Some voters are going to support Trump no matter what he does,” said Cassino. “He’s said that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue without losing support, and he’s not completely wrong.”
The poll differs from some other polls about the Republican Presidential Primary race because it sampled likely voters in a Republican primary contest, rather than likely Republican voters more generally.—
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